We’ve mentioned a lot about FC Cincinnati over the last few weeks, and for good reason.  Reaching back to the middle of June, they were one of the hottest teams in MLS with stretch of 6-1-1 going into the Leagues Cup break.  Since then, they’ve dropped two of their last three (both at home but also against Eastern Conference playoff teams) and now welcome the new East leading Philadelphia Union to town on Saturday.  I’m not really concerned about FCC because they’ve made it this far, but there are some metrics that tell me they may be over performing for where they’re really at.  Heading into the weekend, FCC are 12th in the East (23rd in the league) in expected goals (xG).  Their xG differential (xGD) per 90 minutes is also 12th in the East and they’re currently the only team that’s positioned outside the play-in game that has an xGD/90 of less that 0 (For those not fluent in xG again, this means they’re expected to give up more goals each game than they’re expected to score.  Cincinnati have outperformed their xG by quite a large margin, with only Inter Miami having a larger difference (Miami GF-xG=11.3, while FCC’s is 8).  We can chalk that up to the Evander effect if we want to, but over the course of a season, these numbers tend to even out.  If the chance creation doesn’t improve, it could be tough for them to find opportunities when they have to face the best teams come playoff time.  That task won’t be easy against a Union team who has far and away conceded less than any other team this season.

It seems like there are only a few teams in the league who could fire one of the most sought after coaches in the league after one disappointing season and bounce back the next year with one of the more consistent seasons I can remember.  They’ve flown under the radar for most of it, but wow are they a machine.  It seems like the puzzling decisions continue to build up yet they always seem to end up on the right side of history when the dust settles.  Firing Jim Curtain at the end of last season was a shock to most, especially when you take into account that they’d finished in the top four spots in the East in every single of the four previous seasons.  Daniel Gazdag had been a staple in the midfield of that team since his arrival in 2021, and seemingly without much of a fight he was dealt to the Columbus Crew in April for $4 million.  They’ve scored the fifth most goals in the East, and Tai Baribo is a big reason why the Gazdag contributions haven’t been missed.  His 16 tie him for third in the Golden Boot (presented by Audi) race, just four away from Sam Surridge at the top.  Kai Wagner has played the provider for them in Gazdag’s absence.  He’s just one assist away from his best MLS tally of 10.  It hasn’t been the scoring of goals that’s blown the rest of the league away, but their ability to keep teams off the scoresheet that’s been much more impressive.  The Union are the ONLY team that’s averaging less than a goal conceded per match (.90), and despite Andre Blake’s absences with injury they’re tied for second in the league with 10 clean sheets.  It’s Jakob Glesnes that anchors that back line, and good news in Union fans— the team announced that they’d re-signed the Norwegian to a long term extension.

I wouldn’t expect this game to be featured in next week’s “Goalfest Game of the Week,” but if you want to watch two MLS Cup hopefuls duel it out in one of the best atmospheres in the league, this is the game for you.

This is the first time I’ve typed “CF Montreal” since I started this, and it just felt weird.  They’ll always be the Impact for me I think.  One day their every season rebrands will commence and we’ll have to get used to whatever they settle on, but I digress.

I know what you’re all thinking— “Bones, why would you tell us to watch these two teams, who aren’t really in playoff contention, who don’t jump off the page in terms of exciting watches, who are… Canadian.”  Yes, I know, but I’m telling you.  I may be biased, and I’m sorry for the take I’m about to give you.  This is a top three MLS rivalry of all time and it still stands true to this day.  I will die on this hill.  There’s genuine distaste not just between the two fanbases, but the cities as a whole.  It’s not like the friendly Cascadia rivalries, it’s far deeper rooted than El Traffico, and no Copa Tejas game could ever scratch the surface.  Yes, neither team has been that impressive this year, I know that.  BUT— Montreal has looked better as of late.  They’re coming off a win against Austin that lifted them out of the basement for the time being, and if you’ve watched them play,  you can tell they’re trending upwards.  The loss of Joel Waterman to Chicago will hurt, so we’ll se just how much of an impact he had on team.  Toronto FC has also been improving as of late.  TFC has recorded three straight draws, and again, I know, let’s not act like we’re comparing that to Charlotte’s win streak, but it’s improvement.  Oh, I forgot to mention two of those were against Columbus and at Supporter’s Shield leading Philadelphia.  Everyone do yourselves a favor:  when you’re bored on Saturday morning, pop on over to YouTube and watch a compilation of TFC vs Montreal highlights.  There’s goals, there’s a whole lot of violence, and trust me, there’s a ton of genuine hatred for each other.  Don’t let the (somewhat odd) recent transfers and trades between the two teams fool you.  No matter where these teams are in the standings, there’s always more at stake when they face off.  I’m not going to talk about metrics, players, or playoff positioning here because it truly doesn’t matter.  This game is the epitome of “it just means more.”

Ah, yes.  Nothing like a Sunday night 11 o’clock kick off for all us east coast MLS fans.

The VAST majority of the time, I’d be sleeping by kickoff, but I think I may have to make an exception for this one.  San Diego FC will travel up to Los Angeles and play their first MLS game at BMO Stadium late on Sunday night.  San Diego sit atop the Western Conference table and won’t lose that positioning regardless come Monday morning, but geographically and positionally, this is a big one.  We’ve talked fairly in depth about San Diego, and if you missed it, here’s why I’ve been so impressed with them. Anders Dreyer has taken the league by storm and the style in which Mikey Varas sets his team up to play is truly exceptional given the amount of time he had to make it all happen.  As each week goes by, San Diego are getting closer and closer to history.  St. Louis City made history when they won the Western Conference in their first season of existence in 2023.  For reference, they won the West with 56 points.  San Diego has 53 points… with 6 games to go.  They have a chance to shatter that record.  For what it's worth, I’m sure they’ll finish with more points than STL City did.  If it’ll be enough to win the conference will be a different story.  Look back at that 2023 table.  Man, was the West tight that year. 12 points separated STL from the final playoff spot in the West.  This year, San Diego will have to crush that benchmark if they want to take the number one seed into the playoffs.  Minnesota is three points back of San Diego, Vancouver is only four points back with a game in hand, and there’s their opponent on Sunday, sitting 12 points back in fifth place.  Only difference is, LAFC still have THREE games to make up.

LAFC’s story has been a bit different this season.  While they’ve only played 25 league games up to this point, not many teams across the league have played more games in all competitions.  Concacaf Champions Cup, Club World Cup, and Leagues Cup have made for a busy schedule for the 2022 MLS Cup Champs.  Now that all the other competitions are out of the way, Steve Cherundolo will want to finish his tenure as LAFC manager as strongly as possible.  They’re a playoff team, no doubt.  The only question will be how high they’ll finish in the standings.  The busy schedule doesn’t ease up down the stretch, as they still have three games to make up.  That’s the cost of success, I guess.  A win at home on Sunday night would go a long way for their chances to actually WIN the West.  It’s not even close to out of the question at this point.  12 points back with three games in hand and a match against the leaders on Sunday.  It’s all there to play for.  Toss in the addition of Son Heung-min (ever heard of him?) and there’s no way anyone would rule out this team making a run at the one seed.  Now, a loss on Sunday might put that feat out of reach, but you never know in this league.  This one is a must watch, even for all of us in the eastern time zone.  All the stars will be out in Los Angeles on Sunday night, and under the bright lights and raucous crowd of BMO Stadium, we’ll see who shines the brightest.