Coming off an emotional win last week in Portland, Cincinnati return to TQL Stadium on Saturday to begin a hellish home stand that starts with NYCFC.  FCC have collected just 23 of their 52 points at home this year, although they have played three less home games than they have away.  That means they’ll play the majority of their remaining games from the comforts of home, and in this league where road wins are so hard to come by, it could be clear skies ahead in Southern Ohio.  Having a healthy Kevin Denkey back for this stretch of playoff opponents will be huge for Cincy, who also announced before the deadline they’d brought back former striker Brenner on loan from Udinese.  The extra firepower could take FCC over the top as they challenge for the Supporter’s Shield, and a win here could go a long way towards those ambitions.  After New York City, they’ll welcome Philadelphia and Nashville, so this one is critical.

New York City have been a bit inconsistent this season.  A rougher start to the season was erased with a strong mid season run and losses to Houston at home and twice to Montreal are overshadowed by two wins over Orlando and a big home win against Philly.  It always depends on which NYCFC team shows up that day— will Alonso Martinez be in a dangerous mood or are we in for some calamitous defending?  As of now, they sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, but with two games in hand and three points behind Charlotte, the Pigeons will expect to be out of a play-in position by the end of the season.  The funny thing about games in hand is, they’re opportunities to move up or leave teams behind… until they’re not.  If you don’t capitalize on them, that position you were in that you thought was fine quickly disappears.  Yes, they have more opportunities to pick up points than most anyone else in the conference, but their schedule is none too kind when it comes to games you’d expect them to win.  Five of their last nine are against teams currently above them in the East.  Sprinkle in decision day against the scalding hot Seattle Sounders and a Hudson River Derby in there and you’ve got yourself a nightmare run to end the season.

A month ago, Nashville were in the discussion of challenging for the Supporter’s Shield.  Since then, they’ve lost three straight MLS matches and face a tough test welcoming The Lions to Geodis Park this weekend.  Nashville have made their home field a bit of a fortress this year, losing just one in 13. The other 12 have resulted in nine wins and three draws.  2.31 points per game at home is good for second in the entire league, just behind Charlotte.  Sam Surridge has led the line for Nashville, and his 18 goals put him second in the Golden Boot race behind Messi.  2022 MLS MVP Hany Mukhtar has contributed another six goals and 12 assists for Nashville and they’re always a dangerous duo when they’re in sync.  They’ve been stout defensively at home, conceding just nine times.  They’ll look to continue that AND jumpstart their Supporter’s Shield push down the stretch against one of the hottest teams in the league.

Orlando City return from their cross country Leagues Cup victory looking for their fifth straight league win.  It’s a tough game sandwiched in between Leagues Cup rounds, as they’ll head to Miami for the semi finals on Wednesday, but it’s essential that their full focus is on this matchup.  Breaking down Nashville’s defense will be the biggest test, and with Orlando’s struggles defending in transition, they’ll need a big game from the center back pairing and goalkeeper Pedro Gallese if they want to leave Broadway with all three points.  This ones a big match in the East.  It’s seeds three vs four and they’re level on points.  Will Orlando keep the good times rolling or will Nashville stop the bleeding?

San Diego took the lead in the Supporter’s Shield race last week and if their strong season continues, they’ll be on track to achieve something no expansion side has ever done in year one.  Just a couple years ago, St. Louis City made history being the first expansion side to win the conference in their first season.  San Diego looks on track to swallow up that record and go for the regular season title.  They play a dangerous game.  In possession, Mikey Varas’ side play out of the tightest spaces and most impossible scenarios, almost to a detriment.  Last week in San Jose, it felt like they barely got out of their own end in the first half, and San Jose generated a ton of incredible chances from turning their opponents over in bad spots.  But as the old saying goes, they don’t ask how, they ask how many.  San Diego sits atop the Supporter’s Shield race ahead of FC Cincinnati on goal differential, and in the weaker Western Conference, I’d back them to hold that spot when Decision Day comes and goes.  They have difference makers in the attack and they somehow are able to continuously put out fires when danger stares them in the face.  It’s obviously impressive that they’ve been able to put together a roster that competes at this level in season one, but for me the culture and identity they’ve built in this short period of time is even more astonishing.  It’s either really fun or extremely maddening to watch a San Diego FC game.  One second you’re in awe of how easy it looks for them to break teams down and the next you’re pulling your hair out wondering why they aren’t playing smarter.  This season could have gone the complete other way for San Diego, they might’ve been the stubborn team that wouldn’t change their system and died on the hill of playing out of everything, but it hasn’t.  They’re building a system, one like Columbus in a sense, that doesn’t always rely on individual players but the style and structure as a whole.  Now, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves, Anders Dreyer has taken the league by storm in his first year in Southern California.  With 13 goals and 16 assists, his 29 goal contributions are a league best.  He might be the favorite for MVP in a lot of people’s eyes, and nobody would have much complaint if he wins it. It’s been the perfect season for San Diego, and there’ll be no lack of confidence welcoming Portland to SnapDragon Stadium in the late kickoff Saturday night.

Portland are on a bit of a skid coming off the Leagues Cup break, dropping their last two games.  They’ve won once in their last six games, and a team who at one point was pushing the top four in the West has found themselves just five points above the playoff line.  The Timbers are a run and gun team.  They’re high octane and rely on open space and room to run.  Surely Phil Neville will have watched San Diego’s last match against San Jose and he’ll really like their chances to come in and pull off an upset.  The way that San Jose was able to press and create chances on turnovers is right up Portland’s alley in terms of style of play.  They’re active and aggressive on the front line, and have the players to punish the first place team in transition.  It’ll be a matchup of styles here, expect San Diego to (duh) dominate possession and stay the course as they showed last week against San Jose.  Even if the Timbers do go ahead, they’ve conceded nearly 40% of their goals in the final half hour of the game, and San Diego has been particularly good in the final 15 minutes, with over 30% of their goals being scored during that period.  Expect this one to go down to the wire.