Orlando City continued their rise up the Eastern Conference table with a blowout victory over Messi-less Miami on Sunday.  The Lions didn’t waste any time getting started as Luis Muriel scored to put the home team ahead in the 2nd minute.  Martín Ojeda found his 13th assist of the season, second in MLS to San Diego’s Anders Dreyer.  Muriel’s seventh goal of the season finished off a lovely passage of play between he and Ojeda, setting the tone for the rest of the match.

Inter Miami wasted no time clawing back level as Yannick Bright scored the equalizer in the 5th minute.  Bright pounced on a clearance and scored his first MLS goal in style, burying a full volley from 18 yards out.  A back and forth first half was played at a frenetic pace and despite chances galore for both teams, the 1-1 scoreline would hold until half time.  Orlando City started the second half much like they did the first and Muriel bagged his brace just five minutes in.  The Columbian striker took advantage of a broken corner kick play and slotted his second past Inter Miami goalkeeper Oscar Ustari.  Ojeda scored Orlando City’s third of the match just before the hour mark, sneaking a near post finish past Ustari, one the Argentinian goalkeeper would surely want back.  Ustari made up for his mistake a couple minutes later when he sprawled out and robbed Ivan Angulo of a fourth for Orlando.  Inter Miami’s best chance to cut the deficit in half came in the 66th minute, when Luis Suarez saw OCSC goalkeeper Pedro Gallese off his line and went the for spectacular from half field.  A scrambling Gallese retreated towards his line and tipped Suarez’s effort over the bar, tumbling into his own net to prevent the goal.

Marco Pasalic would seal the deal for the Lions in the 88th minute when he found himself running behind enemy lines completely alone and in on a breakaway.  His original attempt was saved beautifully from Ustari, who came up big on multiple occasions for Miami on the day, but Pasalic would not be denied as he picked up the rebound, beat a retreating Miami defender and slotted his 11th goal of the season.  Orlando would keep their foot on the gas for the remainder of the game, which could have seen an even worse scoreline from Miami’s point of view.

This game had everything, and I mean EVERYTHING.  90 minutes of end to end action, chances, goals, confrontations, and a game played at an extremely fast pace was a joy to watch for Orlando City supporters.

Orlando continues to show they’ll be a force in the East down the stretch.  They jumped Columbus (who were off this weekend) for fourth place in the conference.  Orlando still has games against Columbus, Cincinnati, and two against Nashville in their final eight games.  If they are able to get a home playoff game, know they’ve earned it against the cream of the crop in the East, and they have all the makings of a team who can no doubt make a run to MLS Cup.

Inter Miami remain in sixth place in the loaded East, but still have three games in hand on most of the teams above them.  They’re still on pace to be near or at the top of the Supporter’s Shield standings, but they’re pretty much done playing against the teams above them.  Will the rest of the East beat each other up and see Miami emerge down the stretch?  Miami’s biggest concern (you guessed it) will be how long Lionel Messi will be inactive for.  Messi injured his hamstring during Leagues Cup and his return date is still up in the air.

Orlando Is Peaking At The Right Time

Orlando City are one of the most dangerous teams in the East right now.  It’s not that they’ve taken maximum points from their last three, or that two of those games were convincing wins at Columbus and vs Miami.  Those two games are a culmination of what Oscar Pareja has been building down in Central Florida all season.  They’re the best in the East when it comes to expected goals (xG).  Martín Ojeda has been the playmaker Orlando have been begging for since Kaka left the Lions.  His 14 goals and 13 assists lead the team by a wide margin.  His 27 goal contributions are also tied for second in the league (Dreyer, 29 & Messi, 27).  He has as good an argument as any for MVP this season, especially if Orlando can finish the season strong.

Orlando has almost identical home and away records this season, which is rare in MLS to find given that away wins are so hard to come by.  When you look at the numbers, games in Orlando tend to be high scoring affairs.  10 of Orlando’s 13 home matches this year have had goal totals of three or more and it’s a wonder that their home record isn’t much better than it is.  The Lions have a home xG differential of +11.8, which is good for third in the conference (fbref.com) but have conceded seven more goals than expected at Inter&Co Stadium.  For those who don’t study xG, I’ll tell you what that means.  Orlando has given up goals at home that they aren’t expected to.  Between poor defending, freak finishes, or uncharacteristic mistakes (or in this case, all three), Orlando have conceded far too much at home.  Seven goals in 13 home matches is the difference in so many points that could be crucial come playoff time.

Here’s the good news for Orlando: It hasn’t been great defensively and they’re still well in the race.  Cleaning up some defensive missteps at home could see Orlando really make a strong push into the postseason.  They’re yet to play Cincinnati and Columbus once more as well as both games against Nashville.  That’s 12 points up for grabs against teams currently above them in the standings.  It’s all there for Orlando.  They’ve made a believer out of me as of late, and with some buttoned up defending, look out for the Lions.

No Panic In South Beach

I’ll make this one quick.  Miami has payed more games over the past two season than any other team in MLS.  They’ve made deep runs in almost every competition they’ve been in since  Messi has arrived, and they’re third in the Eastern Conference in Points Per Game (PPG).  PPG is an important metric to measure where Miami are at because they’ve still played so many fewer games than the teams around and above them.  Are they going to break the points record like they did last year? Probably not, but they will be in the playoffs and that’s when the team really comes to life.  You can be sure that head coach Javier Mascherano will do everything in his power to make sure Messi is healthy and fit come playoff time.  He’s obviously still the heartbeat of that team, and with 27 goal contributions, firmly in the MVP debate.  Rodrigo De Paul has added some much needed legs to the midfield as well.  His ability to cover ground will help immensely come playoff time.  They’ve been poor defensively this season for their expectations.  Miami sit 10th in the Eastern Conference in goals against and they’re third worst in xGA per 90 minutes this season.  Similarly to how Orlando City is at home, Miami have given up way more goals than their xGA would suggest (33.5 xGA, 38 GA).  In order to give their skill players a chance, Miami have to be more stout defensively.  If they can do that, Messi and Co. will take care of the rest.