The Philadelphia Union secured the Supporter’s Shield title last weekend with a tense 1-0 win over a surging NYCFC.  Mikael Uhre scored the lone goal of the match in the 40th minute and Andre Blake kept his ninth clean sheet of the campaign.  This is the Union’s second Supporter’s Shield and their highest regular season points total in club history.  Bradley Carnell concluded a dream first season in Philadelphia, but this isn’t his first time taking the number one seed into the playoffs.  His 2023 St. Louis City SC won the western conference and were bounced in the first round by rivals Sporting KC.  This team, however is not 2023 STL City. They’ve allowed less than a goal a game, and that number is actually heavily skewed by their 7-0 defeat in Vancouver just a few weeks ago.  Here’s a number for you: over 20% of the Union’s goals conceded came in just that game.  33 goals against with a 7-0 loss is a pretty impressive number, especially when you factor in that three time MLS Goalkeeper of The Year Andre Blake has only played 20 games this season.  This Union team is built for the postseason.  They don’t concede easily and their well balanced attack gets goals from a number of different players.  There aren’t many teams across the league that have been as consistent all season as the Union, but as we know come playoff time, one off night could spell the end of an unforgettable season.

Vancouver has continued their strong stretch over the past couple of weeks after raising the Canadian Cup, a dominating performance at home to San Jose, and more late game heroics from Thomas Müller in Orlando.  In a difficult away test over the international break, the Whitecaps overcame a late one goal deficit to come to the brink of winning the Western Conference.  Substitute Nelson Pierre leveled the game in the 81st minute, setting the stage for a Thomas Müller winner seven minutes into added time.

What a passage of play that is so deep into the game.  The Whitecaps have taken over as the hottest team in the league, going undefeated over the last eight games, and they’ve not only outlasted but matched LAFC’s bid for the top spot in the West.  In Jesper Sørensen’s first season at the helm, they’ve averaged 1.9 points per game, lifted a trophy (I don’t care what you think about the Canadian Championship, it matters, and I will fight you if you tell me it doesn’t), and were a team stomach bug away from winning the Concacaf Champions Cup.  That rivals Carnell’s first season in Philly any way you look at it.  Traditionally, the teams that make the run at MLS Cup are the ones who are hottest in the last 10 games.  Vancouver is certainly showing everyone that they’re getting hot at the right time.

Let’s start with the Eastern Conference here, because everything is much clearer on that side.  The playoff field is set.  No playoff line drama, no heartbreaking results to miss out on the postseason, and we already know who won the conference.  Philadelphia, FC Cincinnati, and Inter Miami have locked down the top three spots, although FCC and Miami could both finish either second or third.  Charlotte, NYCFC, and Nashville are fourth, fifth, and sixth, respectively heading into Decision Day.  They’ll be our next group of three teams, we’ll call them the “fight for home field advantage” group.  All three teams have really difficult Decision Day matchups.  Ironically all of them are playing home games.  Charlotte welcomes Philly, NYCFC will duel with Seattle, and Nashville could move into fourth if both of those teams lose and they’re able to beat Miami.  Nashville will have some added pressure from behind them however, two of the final three playoff teams can still overtake them, leaving Nashville in the dreaded play-in game.  The final three teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs we’ll call the “avoid the play-in like the plague” group.  Orlando are currently the team avoiding that midweek play-in game, but one win since the middle of august has seen them drop from the top four to trying to keep their heads above water.  It’s funny: When they were rolling through the summer, I almost said on this very newsletter: “They look fantastic, now all they have to do is avoid the Orlando thing where they collapse down the stretch and get knocked out of the playoffs early.”  Man, that would have been a curse of the commentator for the ages.  They’ll head north of the border to play Toronto, where a win would make the other two’s results inconsequential.  If they are to slip up with any other result, Chicago will be breathing down their necks.  The Fire head to New England on the final day, knowing that a win could very well see them out of the play-in round.  Chicago has suffered just two losses since the middle of July, and have completely erased the inconsistencies of the early season.  They look like one of the more well put together teams in the East at this point, and I’m sure no team will be happy to see them on the playoff schedule.  Columbus on the other hand have managed just two wins since the middle of July and, like Orlando, have plummeted to the final playoff spot.  Columbus welcome the New York Red Bulls in a truly must win game if they have any hope of making a postseason impact.  Personally, I think an Orlando vs Columbus desperation play-in game would be fantastic television (streaming).  So there you have it, your full Eastern Conference Decision Day scenarios.  That was the easy one, so hold onto your hats for the Wild Wild West.

The top four in the Western Conference are set in stone. The only question is who’s finishing where.  Vancouver have a three point lead on San Diego, but a San Diego win at Portland and a Vancouver loss against Dallas would see the newcomers finish atop the conference.  Vancouver can only finish as low as second, but San Diego theoretically could finish first or fourth.  It’s going to be a nervy 90 minutes in Portland for them.  LAFC will travel to Colorado in a must win game for the Rapids.  A win there could see LAFC up to second while a loss could drop them to fourth.  Fourth place Minnesota will head to LA to play the Galaxy, knowing that a loss won’t hurt their playoff standing, but a win could bump them up to second with some other results going in their favor.  Seattle is locked into the fifth seed, so their cross country trip to New York really is a playoff prep game.  Austin is locked into the sixth seed, which will be interesting to see how they manage San Diego coming to town.  Portland are currently in seventh, and only a loss and a Dallas win in Vancouver could see them drop into the play-in game.  8-11 is where it gets really, really interesting, so buckle up.  Dallas (41 points) will enter Decision Day one point ahead of Salt Lake and Colorado (40 points) and three points ahead of San Jose (38 points).  Any four of these teams could finish in any order.  Dallas have the toughest matchup in Vancouver, Salt Lake will head to St. Louis, Colorado welcome LAFC, and San Jose will play at home against Austin.  I really want to pick San Jose to make it in the most improbable fashion, I really do.  And the crazy thing is, it’s not so far fetched.  I’m confident that RSL will get the job done in St. Louis.  The big question mark is Colorado I don’t know if they have enough left in the tank to hold home court against LAFC, but every once in a while the Rapids pull off some great results.  But that leaves Dallas.  Vancouver know they have to at least get a point to avoid getting jumped at the top by San Diego.  I don’t see them losing at home to Dallas.  Can I see a draw? Maybe.  If Colorado beat LAFC and RSL win in St. Louis, a tie won’t be enough for FC Dallas, and they’d miss out.  It’s rare we see this many teams and spots alive heading into the final day of the regular season, so sit back, don’t relax, but enjoy the madness.