aaand a little bonus for the people:

We’re really coming down to the wire now.  Most teams have just two games left, while a few still have three or four.  This week, a couple of shock results gave us some real clarity on the postseason participants in the East, muddled the playoff line out West, and shed some light on the probable Supporter’s Shield winner.  Some teams have played their way out of that conversation over the last couple weeks, while Philadelphia has shaken off the big defeat in Vancouver and emerged as the true favorite for the Shield.  San Diego’s three game winless streak has not only played them out of Supporter’s Shield contention, but their stranglehold on the Western Conference is now completely gone.  With a Vancouver tie against Seattle over the weekend, they’re now tied for first in the conference with a game in hand on San Diego.  That game in hand is against Orlando during the international break and nothing is ever guaranteed in this league as we know, but Vancouver is positioned to take that top spot from right under San Diego’s nose.  Technically, five teams are still alive in the Supporter’s Shield race.  Philadelphia has the pole position but Miami might have the second best chance if they take all of their remaining 12 points.  Vancouver could capitalize if the Union slip up in their final two games, and Cincinnati would need some massive help to get it done as would San Diego.  Keep in mind that Philly’s last two games are against a surging NYCFC at home and in Charlotte on Decision Day, so there still could be a wrinkle left in the fold over the next couple weeks.

The Eastern Conference field is all but set at this point.  Eight of the nine teams have clinched playoff spots with Chicago left as the only team still to do so.  They’re five points ahead of the New York Red Bulls and the Fire still have a game in hand.  It would be a shocking collapse if they didn’t hold on for at least that final spot, nonetheless move up in the table.  The Fire have a game in hand on eighth place Columbus and sit just two points behind them.  Columbus is on a horrid run of form with only a single win since the beginning of August, so unless their form turns quickly, they could be looking at an away day in Chicago for the play-in round.  The Red Bulls are the only team in the East who have a chance at that last playoff spot, however they’d need to secure six points against both of the Ohio teams and hope Chicago lose all of their final three games.  If Chicago tie one of those final three and New York holds serve, it could come down to goal differential but as of now and based on current form, it would be really hard to see that happening.  Seeding will dominate the storylines in this conference for the final three weeks, and I won’t even begin to try and explain how close it is.  Second place could finish as low as sixth and the ninth place Fire could finish as high as third.  It’s really tight and so much movement can happen in the final three weeks of the year.

The Western Conference on the other hand is far from decided.  Five teams have clinched their place in the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs, but heading into the weekend I’d expect Portland and Austin to feel pretty secure in their postseason position.  A quick look at the top of the table will show that Vancouver and San Diego will battle out the last couple weeks for the conference title while LAFC could still come from behind and dethrone both of them.  LAFC are four points behind first place with two games in hand on San Diego and one game in hand on Vancouver.  LAFC are the hottest team in the West over the last five games, and if either of the two teams leading the West slip up in their final few games, it might just be LAFC that emerge as the Western Conference Champions.  The real intrigue here lies down near the playoff line.  Colorado and San Jose are narrowly holding on to the play-in spots after this weekend, but FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake are well within striking distance.  Both teams have a game in hand over the two sitting above the line, and both could move into the eight seed if that game in hand turns into three points.  Houston is the dark horse in this scenario, sitting two points back from San Jose and level on games.  This weekend will go a long way towards deciding who’s in and who’s out, with Colorado heading to Salt Lake for a Rocky Mountain Cup clash, Dallas hosting the Galaxy in their first of back-to-back matchups, and a desperate Houston and San Jose taking on the top two teams in the conference.  If any of these teams take maximum points in their final few games, surely you can expect they’ll make the playoffs.  Talking about the playoff line and discussing the top of the table are two different things.  Nobody is surprised if San Diego or Vancouver rip off a couple wins in a row to take the conference title.  That one goes in the expected category.  These teams near the playoff line have had to fight and scrap for every single point they’ve earned this year, and that will be no different if they want to make it into the postseason.

Consider this your weekend preview as well.  The Western Conference matchups to watch, well, you just read ‘em. In terms of the Eastern Conference, keep an eye on these ones.

Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC

Two of the hottest teams in the league over the last 10 games face off in Philadelphia this weekend.  New York City have won six of their last eight games (and if you’ve been reading, you know how difficult I thought this last five game stretch was).  We’re still awaiting a diagnosis on Matt Freese’s concussion that forced him to leave the Hudson River Derby on Saturday, so we’ll see how long he’s sidelined for.  Outside of that worry, NYCFC has been flying over this last stretch.  They responded well after a 4-0 defeat at the hands of Miami midweek, and will come into Philadelphia flying high after the rivalry victory against the Red Bulls.  Philadelphia should also be full of confidence after their 6-0 beatdown of DC United on Saturday.  A win at home would bring them to the brink of Supporter’s Shield glory, and they could actually clinch the title if some other results go their way.  Saying it’s their last regular season game at Subaru Park, it would be a nice send off for fans heading into the postseason.

Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew

Per my diligent research, this is the only other Eastern Conference matchup where two playoff teams are facing off. Columbus will head down to Central Florida searching for some momentum after what’s been, by their standards, an abysmal ten game stretch.  In fact, over the last ten games, only three teams across the league have picked up less points than Columbus.  Two wins, three draws, and five losses does not sound like the Columbus Crew we’ve been accustomed to.  They’ve slid from the top four down to the play-in round in really the blink of an eye, and questions should be asked about just what’s happening there.  They’ve averaged two goals conceded per match over that stretch and only DC and KC have a worse goal differential over the same span.  It’s crunch time for Columbus.  They’ve done enough work early in the season not to have to worry about making the playoffs, but an early exit could be on the horizon if they can’t find some good form in the last couple games.  Orlando have picked up 18 points in their last 10 games, and are heading the opposite direction of the Crew.  Ironically, they’re two points ahead of Columbus and sit one place above the Crew in the table, so the momentum shift in this game could be massive.  Orlando do have a game in hand on them, but as we mentioned earlier, that game in hand is against a surging Vancouver Whitecaps team in a couple weeks.  The Lions won’t want to leave anything to chance heading into decision day, and a win this weekend would go a long way towards avoiding the play-in game.